It’s February in Nebraska. The days are short and the nights are long. Those crisp fall Saturdays seem about as distant as Nebraska competing for National Titles, but those that have been around know that this time of year provides a few certainties. The air is frigid, the trees are bare, snowstorms are a guessing game, and Runza sandwiches are consumed at an alarming rate. However, there is another certainty that is often viewed as a little more controversial in the Cornhusker state. We call this the “Husker Hype Train” and it seems that with each passing season, whether it’s warranted or not, this train will chug along like a semi heading west on I-80.
Some refer to this time of year as “list season”. Various media outlets, sports writers, and keyboard warriors will release their lists of potential breakout players, bounce back teams, and programs likely to take a step back, amongst others. Like clockwork, Nebraska is starting to pop up within these lists once again. Some may embrace this journey with high hopes and excitement and others will scoff at the idea of a team that has struggled so mightily in recent history to, again, be included in these meaningless accolades but, at some point, you’d think we could live up to some of the hype, right?
Time will tell.
When Scott Frost announced he was coming home to coach Nebraska, a statewide celebration took place. He was the trendiest name in all of college football coaching. He is a homegrown hero. He is the savior. For good reason, there was a healthy amount of buzz surrounding the future of Nebraska football because it appeared that the pieces were finally starting to fall in to place. He was bringing his high-flying, fast-paced offensive scheme that we had seen at Oregon and UCF to Nebraska and even stated in his first press conference that the Big 10 Conference would have to adapt to our style of play. He also immediately landed his top primary recruit in Quarterback Adrian Martinez. What was not to be excited about? At that point in time, the hype was real and very hard to ignore.
Then the season started.
As year two of the Frost era loomed, there was a completely new level of hype. The first season hadn’t gone as planned but when you looked closely at that team, you could see glimpses of what this could be. It was exciting. Along with that excitement, came a good amount of speculation. Rightfully so. Was the rebuild of this once-dominant program a bigger task than what Frost had anticipated? Did the dark times of “hip hip hoorays” and ice cream with sprinkles really set Nebraska back this much? The national media didn’t seem to think so. As the preseason polls and conference projections started rolling out, Nebraska found themselves as a popular pick to win the Big 10 West, compete for the Big 10 Championship, and ultimately make some serious noise on the national level. In addition to all of the hype that the team was receiving, the young quarterback, Adrian Martinez, was on nearly every preseason Heisman list entering the season, so it was hard not to think that things were trending in the right direction.
Then the season started.
We are now looking ahead to year three under Scott Frost’s leadership and it has started yet again. After another disappointing year, Nebraska found themselves home for the holidays as they failed to reach bowl eligibility for the third straight season. Somehow, none of that seems to matter because, as it usually does, the “Husker Hype Train” is back on the tracks and is slowly, but surely, chugging along. A certain sports media juggernaut has already released a few different preseason rankings and as you scroll past the usual suspects of Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and everyone else, you come to the Nebraska Cornhuskers sitting just inside the Top 25. How can this be? How is a team that has won just nine games over the course of the past two seasons still considered a top-tier team?
Let’s take a look.
The first poll that Nebraska has been featured in is the ESPN SP+ Rankings where they were able to sneak into the #25 spot. ESPN Staff Writer, Bill Connelly, creates these rankings and they are based on three primary factors. Those factors include returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. The SP+ Rankings are designed to be predictive and forward-facing and despite The Big Red being ranked 24th and 26th in the 2019 Preseason AP Top 25 and Preseason Coaches’ Poll, respectively, the SP+ Rankings saw through that Nebraska hype by ranking them outside of the top 30 (well-played Mr. Connelly). These SP+ Rankings seem to be very high on the Huskers offense going into the 2020 campaign as they have them slated as the #10 overall offense in the country while they have the Blackshirt Defense ranked as the #55 defense in the land. If the saying “numbers don’t lie” holds true, then we can expect some exciting things for the upcoming season.
Chugging that Kool-Aid yet?
The second poll in which Nebraska makes its debut is the ESPN Football Power Index, or FPI. The FPI is a predictive rating system that measures a team’s strengths and uses them to forecast game or season results. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams’ value and is based on the average number of points by which a team would beat an average team on a neutral field. According to the full FPI rankings, Nebraska made the second-largest jump of any other team in the nation from 2019 to 2020, only behind Florida State, where they come in at Preseason #22 by jumping 25 spots this offseason. That is a very staggering jump for a team that hasn’t lived up to expectations for a long time, but then again, who are we to argue with cold, hard data?
So why should we buy into any of this? How is this any different from the hype of the past?
I don’t have a good answer for that other than we will find out soon enough.
My only advice is if you see that Big Red Husker Hype Train chugging down the tracks take a minute to stop, wave, and enjoy it because once those crisp Fall Saturdays return, we’ll all know whether it’s gaining speed or slowly coming off the rails.
GBR
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